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Travel numbers improved further in August, the International Air Transport Association (Iata) said on Thursday.
Total passenger numbers flown on international markets were 1.5 percent lower than the previous year in August, a marked improvement on the 9.7 percent decline recorded at the low point in February, Iata said, adding however, that it was still down on last year.
"Over 90 percent of passengers travel on economy seats and this market segment was down 0.4 percent in August, compared to its low point in February when it was down 8.4 percent. There has been some shift of business travellers to cheaper seats at the back of aircraft, which has moderated the decline in economy numbers, but the size of this impact is small.
"The turnaround in economy travel has been driven by consumer confidence in major economies, which has been rising since hitting a low in February. However, the rise in confidence so far does not support much more than zero growth in economy travel numbers," the association said.
Passengers travelling on premium seats represent less than 10 percent of the total, but would normally contribute up to 30 percent of passenger ticket revenues, according to IATA. The recovery of this market segment is key for a return to profitability for most network airlines, it pointed out.
"In August premium-paying passenger numbers were still down 12 percent. However, compared to their low point in May when they were down 23.5 percent that is a larger improvement than that seen in economy travel. World trade has picked up since June but not sufficiently to warrant a significant rise in premium travel. The reported rise in premium passenger numbers remains fragile," the group said.
Average distances flown have risen modestly as longer-haul Asian markets have started to improve relative to shorter-haul markets in Europe and elsewhere, reflecting the uneven nature of the current economic upturn, IATA added.
"As world trade improves with the return to economic growth business travel is picking up. Most passengers in premium seats are on business. However, premium travel is more closely correlated with the international trade in and out of the developed economies. This has risen in both June and July but not sufficiently to warrant a substantial improvement in premium travel.
"Given the volatile month to month past pattern in premium travel and the relatively weak upturn in world trade, some fallback in premium travel in September would not be unexpected," Iata said.
"The same is true for economy travel, which has shown a particularly volatile growth path so far this year. The trend now seems to be upwards from its February low. However, consumer confidence although much improved has only regained half the ground lost during the recession and, in September, appears only strong enough to justify zero growth in economy travel.
"A further rise in consumer confidence will be necessary to generate positive growth in economy travel. Some fall back in September is possible," it said.
"African economies also resisted much of the economic downturn. The
benefits of earlier economic and travel market liberalisation were evident
in the relative robustness of travel in this region. For the year to date
total travel numbers within Africa, between Europe and Africa and between
Africa and the Middle East are all positive," the association said.
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