A firm rand is set to trade in a narrow range on Thursday amid the US Thanksgiving holiday, with very little data expected to provide meaningful direction.
At 9.00am the rand was bid at 7.3811 to the dollar from 7.3200 at its previous close. It was bid at 11.1073 to the euro from its previous close of 11.0766 and was at 12.2900 against sterling from 12.2275.
The euro was bid at $1.5070 from $1.5135 overnight.
A local trader said: "Trade is very thin from Europe, with little action expected later in the day amid the US holiday. Expect a range of 7.32-40 against the dollar.
RMB analysts John Cairns and Nema Ramkhelawan in a morning report noted that if it wasn't for the US Thanksgiving holiday today, US dollar/rand would probably be looking to test and even break the post-crisis low of 7.24.
"As it is, we will almost certainly end the week at the very bottom of the 7.33/35 - 7.62 range ? and possibly even lower," the analysts pointed out.
"It remains predominantly a US dollar story ? and a lagged effect from minutes of the last Fed meeting released late Tuesday evening which showed that US rates are set to remain low for an extended period of time. Whatever the cause, euro/US dollar finally broke that all-important 1.5000 level to trade up to 1.5120 yesterday," RMB said.
"It is interesting that this latest USD move has come without a corresponding surge in risk appetite. Add the fact that emerging markets have been underperforming in recent weeks and the USD move has only been enough to take us back to US dollar/rand 7.33/35 ? the same move last week would have seen us scuttling to test and break 7.24. Nevertheless, the bias is clearly downwards. Further euro/US dollar upside has been opened up by the break while the impending break of the US$1,200/oz level by gold might help. Event risk is however very limited," Cairns and Ramkhelawan said.
Bonds slightly weaker
Bonds were slightly weaker in early trade on Thursday as the market tracked the South African rand.
By 9.06am, the short-term government R154 bond was bid at 7.295 percent from a previous close of 7.220 percent. The medium-term R157 was at 8.380 percent from 8.360 percent at its previous close, while the long-term R186 was bid at 9.090 percent from 9.065 percent before.



