South Africa's repo rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.0 percent when the decision is made on Tuesday next week, according to a snap poll of nine leading economists by I-Net Bridge.

However, three of the nine economists hold out hope that a cut of 50 basis points could be in the offing when Gill Marcus makes her first decision as central bank Governor.

Concerns remain around above-inflation wage settlements of seven percent-13 percent and recent strike action that could have costly economic repercussions. Eskom is likely to be granted increases of 45 percent over three years, which will be inflationary, following the recent 31 percent increase that is already taking its toll on consumers. However, on the positive side, CPI inflation is due to dip below the target at some point soon, potentially only then opening the window for a cut.

Strong rand also likely to weigh

The strong rand over the last few months is also likely to weigh on the MPC deliberations, being dis-inflationary but at the same time weighting on export growth.

"Next week's Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC's) press conference should, then, be a key opportunity for the new Governor to set out her thinking on the economy and policy rates. The Q&A after will likely be dominated by questions about her views on the MPC's inflation-targeting mandate and reserve accumulation and currency policy. She will need to be very clear in her communications strategy on this front as what she says will live with her through heated debates with the political left on these matters," said an international economist who participated in the poll.

"While such a debate will happen (and be noisy), the MPC's current policy is clear. In our view, Governor Marcus must not be afraid of upsetting the left to defend both current policy and policy she believes in. Unions have called for a one percentage point interest rate cut at this meeting and we think they will be disappointed. As such, her grace period with them will likely be short."

The decision will be made shortly after 3pm on Tuesday 17 November.

Forward and swap interest rate markets are also waiting with bated breath for any news on whether the MPC will revert back to bi-monthly meetings next year as they need to price in expected rate changes during these timeframes. There is also some conjecture that the December meeting may be superfluous, especially if a cut happens now.