Cadiz Securities economist Kim Silberman says the current recession has seen a rate of job shedding that is unprecedented, but if the recession turns out to be more acute then in a worst-case scenario the workforce could be 12 percent, or 824 000 people, lighter.

She says her base-case scenario is for a further 5.5 percent drop in employment over the next four years, with a total of 354 700 or nearly nine percent of the labour force losing their jobs.

Silberman says this base-case scenario is premised on the strong likelihood of the current downward phase of the business cycle lasting three years in South Africa, assuming that the global recession lasts until the end of 2010.

She says these forecasts do not take exogenous factors into account such as the Fifa World Cup next year.

However, if the global recovery begins this year, job losses may not be as severe with private sector employment falling by 174 900 over the next two-and-a-half years.

If the recession turns out to be more acute, Silberman's worst-case scenario predicts nearly 824 000 job losses between the peak of 2008 and 2013, to account for 12.4 percent of the workforce.

"Whatever the extent of the job losses, lower tax revenues will result in less fiscal stimulus and higher debt, lower domestic demand, increased government spend on social welfare, decreased savings, more costly private capital and all-round slower growth that in turn will reinforce the decline in employment," she says.