No one could say for sure when the recession in advanced markets and the collapse of growth in emerging markets would end, a US economist told a SA Reserve Bank (SARB) meeting on Thursday.

"When will it end? ... Nobody knows, but we know what to look for," said Professor Dominick Salvatore of Fordham University in New York.

He was speaking at a monetary policy committee strategic planning session hosted by SARB Governor Tito Mboweni in Magoebaskloof in Limpopo.

Salvatore said among the effects of the global economic crisis was a "deep recession" in advanced markets such as the US and Europe and a collapse of growth in emerging markets which included South Africa.

The first factor to look for in trying to ascertain whether the tide was turning was housing prices.

"On housing, we are not yet through the trend of prices falling ? we are not yet at the bottom of the recession on this."

The second factor to look out for was when banks no longer needed to be recapitalised.

Salvatore said there were signs that banks were "almost there".

The third key indicator was when stock markets showed themselves to be consistently back on an upward path.

On this third factor, Salvatore said, "they are signalling anticipating the end of the recession ... that we are about or nearly at the bottom".

Salvatore emphasised that although there were many expert conflicting views and experts changing their views, some studies indicated that in the US the recession should bottom out in the third quarter of this year and in the fourth quarter of 2009 year in Europe.

The effects of the recession in advanced markets had arrived in South Africa ? an emerging market ? later on.

This was partly as a result of a drop in the demand for imports from emerging economies by the advanced countries.