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01:29 06 Feb 12
The SACP's Blade Nzimande. Sapa
Left wing warning
Article By: Evan Pickworth
Fri, 14 Nov 2008 12:00
Chief economist from RMB, Rudolf Gouws, submitted a warning to politicians on Friday whose statements may damage the country at a time when it desperately needs to fund its yawning current account gap.
Gouws advised these politicians to stop making statements about a swing in
spending priorities and avoiding talk of a "swing to the left".
Swing to the left
"It doesn't encourage anyone to fund the current account deficit,"
emphasized Gouws. He said South Africa had the largest key emerging market
current account deficit at a time when commodity prices ? the key export ? were
declining and global investors rein in their spending.
At the moment the largest part of the current account deficit is payments
of dividends and interest to foreigners who invested previously ? a huge drag
on the rand.
Gouws also noted that the policies of incoming US President Obama needed to
be monitored. "He does seem to lean to the protectionist school ? which is what
we don't want."
He added that he believes the decoupling theory ? where an emerging market
like China is not affected by the developed world to as great a degree ? is a
myth.
China can't escape
"China can't escape ? I have heard that ships laden with goods like metals
have been turned back from their ports," said Gouws.
"The real economy will take a long time to recover. Asset prices must stop
falling first and the impact of the rate cuts must kick in," he said.
Gouws feels that the G-20 summit over the weekend is important.
"On Sunday we will probably see strong talk of coordinated policy actions."
Gouws also makes the point that South Africa's real economy needs renewed
entrepreneurial spirit and specialist skills.
He says many professionals, like engineers, had in the past left the real
economy to pursue careers in the paper world of banking, but that there were
signs this trend was slowly starting to reverse as it got to unhealthy levels.
Engineers trading paper
"The value added [profits and wages] in the financial sector went a bit too
far and is now slowing. For instance, you had civil or mechanical engineers
trading paper," he explains.
Gouws's warning on damaging left wing statements, comes on the same day
that Business Day published a story quoting Pan African Holding CE Iraj Abedian
? a former architect of SA's economic policy - saying that left wing
politicians should watch what they say as they could destabilise the economy
during this time of severe global turbulence.
"Politicians are playing a very silly game at the moment. They seem to be
oblivious to the realities of capital markets," he was quoted as saying.
Gouws was speaking at a PwC briefing in Johannesburg on Friday to a large
and predominantly accountant audience on the current financial crisis.