State-owned electricity company Eskom saw one of its highest periods of planned maintenance during December, chairperson Bobby Godsell said on Thursday.
The summer maintenance programme had already moved past its peak planned outage of 9000 megawatts out of Eskom's current operational capacity of about 39 100 MW, he wrote in the latest edition of Financial Mail.
Eskom's immediate challenge for 2009 was to maintain reliable supply, Godsell added.
"Coal stocks have improved to 38 days on average with all stations above the 20 days target, though concern continues at three of the 15 power stations," he said.
The economic slowdown had caused a decrease in demand, with the demand for electricity down to six percent on a year-on-year basis.
However, Godsell said that desirable stability of supply would not be achieved until the system's reserve margin – ie the difference between maximum demand and available supply – moved back from the present eight percent to 15 percent.
"This will require at least 3000 MW of new generation capacity.
"To this 3000 MW must be added the replacement of old plant and expanded capacity to enable and support the economic growth and social development – which is SA's determined future."
He said that should the country's economy increase at six percent per annum for the next 18 years, and assuming electricity demand grew at four percent per annum, new generation of 52 000 MW in total would be required.
Sapa