If ANC Youth League (ANCYL) leader Julius Malema says the nationalisation of South Africa's mines will happen, the ironic truth is that it probably will, even despite repeated denials and assurances to the contrary offered by a variety of senior ANC and government leaders when Malema first broached the subject some months ago.

For Malema — whether his many critics like it or not — has become one of the most feared, most powerful and most influential figures in the ANC in recent times.

And he has been spot on with his 'predictions' in the past. For example, a week before anyone else knew that then president Thabo Mbeki was to be fired, Malema was telling the world that it was a foregone conclusion.

And when Malema began making remarks about minorities, race and transformation in government and business, it soon became a rejuvenated national debate spearheaded by the ANC, the departments of Labour and Trade & Industry, and by organisations such as the Black Management Forum (BMF). It still dominates with many calls for a revamp, among other things, of broad-based black economic empowerment and the seven scorecard elements used in its application.

Naledi Pandor's star was falling

And the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) came out backing Malema when he objected to the number of ministers from minority groups running economics cluster ministries.

It was also Malema who knew, long before anybody else, that former Education minister Naledi Pandor's star was falling and that it was therefore safe to attack her in public.

Although some in the ANC huffed and puffed at his brashness and he had to apologise to Pandor, no action was taken against him and Pandor has since been shunted sideways to head the politically unimportant Science and Technology portfolio.

Malema has the ear and protection of President Jacob Zuma and other influential figures in the ANC alliance. He often accompanies Zuma on important missions.

Malema has also received the blessing of Nelson Mandela, who requested private time with Malema shortly before the April general election.

Malema seen as a latter-day Mandela

In fact, there are many in the ANC and elsewhere who see in Malema a latter-day Mandela who himself, like Malema, once headed the ANCYL and also had a reputation as one who spoke his mind, albeit perhaps more politely and more articulately.

A further demonstration of Malema's standing in the ANC was offered by the Mail & Guardian last week when some of its reporters waited in line for an interview with Malema at Luthuli House, the ANC's headquarters. The newspaper's reporters described how important people such as Kirsten Nematandani, the newly elected South African Football Association (Safa) head, the leaders of the National African Federated Chambers of Commerce (Nafcoc), former ANC spin doctor Carl Niehaus and others were humbly made to wait in line for an audience with Malema — who kept them waiting.

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