Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni and Finance Minister Trevor Manuel appear to be at odds over whether South Africa will see another quarter of negative growth, which would mean a recession.

Mboweni said a recession "might not come as a surprise.

"There might be a bit of a difference of opinion between me and the finance minister," he told members of the Johannesburg Country Club.

Manuel has repeatedly disagreed with economists who say South Africa is already in recession.

He said last month that he realised there was "an argument that if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck, but in technical terms, we're not in a recession".

The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive terms of negative growth.

The economy contracted by 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, with weak manufacturing and mining output data indicating South Africa could be on course for its first recession in 17 years.

Most economists believe that when gross domestic product data for the first quarter of 2009 come out on 26 May they will show negative growth, which will indicate that Africa's biggest economy is indeed in recession.

Mboweni said he noted Manuel's confidence that South Africa would not see another quarter of negative growth, but said: "We are of the view that we might not be surprised to see another quarter of negative growth. Technically, that's a recession."

Economists agree the next few months won't be bright for the economy.

Credit Guarantee economist Luke Doig said: " I am predicting that the first quarter GDP for 2009 will show negative growth, just like the last quarter of 2008."

Mike Schussler, T-sec economist, estimates the first quarter GDP will decline by about three percent.

"The first quarter GDP figure will certainly be negative, and we might see a larger decline than some people expect.

"I agree with the governor on the point that we might not have growth this year," said Schussler.

He added that it is difficult for the finance minister to talk of a recession, especially as we are heading for the 22 April elections.

"The minister is a politician and I don't think it will be good for him to do that," he said.

According to Schussler, this will be a negative year with prospects for improvement only in 2010 and 2011.

The Times