When Finance Minister Trevor Manuel delivers the Budget Speech in his inimitable fashion on 20 February, it may well be for the last time, an end to the revered ANC stalwart's 12-year tenure of steering the country's economic locomotive.

What’s Trevor Manuel favourite movie? The BEE movie. And his favourite song? 'Money’s too tight to mention', of course. Apologies… Manuel jokes may not be of the sidesplitting variety, but the very fact that they even exist is a testament to the popularity of the man from impoverished Kensington in Cape Town.

The Armani-framed orator

With charisma in spades, the suave and urbane finance minister hides a rapier-like mind behind the trademark Armani frames and witty asides. Manuel has single-handedly turned the Budget Speech into an event in its own right, proving to be an enthralling orator with an acute sense of humour. Such is the fervour that surrounds him that he was briefly touted as a replacement for disgraced former World Bank head Paul Wolfowitz and perhaps more implausibly, an outside candidate for the ANC presidency.

While Manuel's accidental introduction into the Mandela cabinet is a timeless anecdote — he heard Madiba ask for a good communist whereas it was an economist the Old Man needed — the steely resolve and vision honed in running battles on the Cape Flats is anything but laughable.

Manuel was politicised as young pupil at Grassy Park's Harold Cressy High School and went on to be a pioneer of the Cape Areas Housing Action Committee and a fiery national executive member of the United Democratic Front. It is these attributes that have enabled the civil engineering graduate to put his imprint on an economy in transition and become a key force in the country's transformation to a democratic entity.

The man's lack of formal indoctrination may well have been a hidden asset as in the years since that fateful Mandela cabinet meeting, he has consistently led cabinet report cards and public opinion polls — the man who the World Economic Forum selected as a "Global Leader for Tomorrow" in 1994 also garnered international plaudits for his work at the World Bank and the United Nations.

However, as an Mbeki loyalist, the 2008 edition of the Budget Speech will probably be Manuel’s last, as the position of finance minister will most likely fall to a proponent of Jacob Zuma’s “Ikhundla economics”, with its emphasis on poverty elimination. It's interesting to note that in 2002 Manuel topped the ANC National Executive Committee list in terms of votes, while last year he placed a dismal 57th.

Manuel’s tenure has not been without critics. His predecessors in the Mandela cabinet were two apartheid throwbacks in Derek Keys and Chris Liebenberg, both of whom set about delighting investors and big corporates, but did little to bridge the appalling disparity between rich and poor in Africa’s largest economy.

Manuel the Marxist?

When Manuel was drafted in 1996 as the first ANC member to fill the ministerial post and a vehement critic of South Africa’s battleship five, the group of colossal conglomerates that dominated the JSE, headed by Anglo American, the winds of change had begun to whistle or so it seemed.

Instead, as noted by the Financial Times, Manuel's frequent blindsides on the conglomerates gave way to a toothless benevolence. But even more revealing than the new finance minister's change of heart regarding the virtues of monopoly capital was the restructuring that took place within the government. The Reconstruction and Development programme (RDP) — one of the post-apartheid government's reasons for being, in the eyes of the black majority — lost its independence to the finance ministry, where its outlays were rigorously screened. The RDP is the ambitious Mandela-era plan that combined measures to boost the economy with socially minded social-service provisions and infrastructure projects.

The typical Manuel Budget is based on fiscal discipline, privatisation, a welcoming investment climate and an open market commitment (and the inevitable fillip to sin taxes), in line with government’s neo-liberal Growth, Employment and Redistribution (Gear) policy. Manuel and Gear have come under heavy fire from Cosatu and the SACP for his pro-capitalist policies, exposing the fragile bonds of the tripartite alliance.

But despite all the rage against the strategy by left wing opponents, "Gear worked", said Iraj Abedian, the CEO of Pan African Advisory Services, in the Financial Mail. "... (I)t was soon perceived that Manuel, with the support of his cabinet colleagues and Mandela in particular, exhibited unwavering commitment to the political and technical objectives of the strategy. In only two years, policy credibility was fully established. Government's and the country's creditworthiness soared," Abedian said.

One thing is for certain: when the arrogant, articulate self-made economist leaves the Budget podium and probably the political dais, the private sector will be getting out their fountain pens in anticipation. They may be thwarted in their ambitions to sign him however, as it appears the former Robben Island inmate may have other ideas.

“There are two jobs in South Africa every person in the country thinks they should have. The one is the Springbok rugby coach and the other is minister of finance. I'm no exception. I'd love to be Springbok rugby coach," he said once in a particularly droll dinner speech.

• Ebrahim Moolla is iafrica.com's business editor. Email him your comments here.